This paper is the product of an introduction written to complete Raufu Mustapha's unfinished project on political settlements and inclusive agrarian transformation in Africa. Involving three country research teams of established African academics from Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria, the project was carried out under the auspices of the Partnership for African Social and Governance Reform (PASGR), with Raufu Mustapha acting as the project coordinator and editor of the final manuscript. He guided and edited the country case studies, but was unable to write the introduction. This paper reflects my contribution to the completion of this manuscript, trying to be true to Raufu's deep institutional understanding of African politics and agrarian change, while bringing in my own understanding of informal institutions and economic inclusion.
The paper takes on the concept of political settlements in African development contexts, building on a growing body of literature that explores the usefulness of this concept, initially developed by Mushtaq Khan in the context of Asian developing countries. The paper benefits from the flourishing literature on political settlements to explore what the concept actually means, distinguishing between the original meaning and the various ways in which it has been captured by mainstream economists and by the development community. It goes on to explore some aspects of political settlements that are particularly salient when it is used in the analysis of African politics. Key among these are the issues of informal institutions, inclusion and transformation. While the political settlement literature tends to elide informal institutions with cliental ties, this paper will explore the distinction between the two, and the implications of this distinction for a more effective use of the political settlement concept in African contexts. Similarly, the incorporation of the notion of 'inclusion' into political settlements analysis has been rather loose and often ideological rather than analytical. A closer look at the varied meanings of inclusion in contemporary development will be used to clarify how it relates to the shaping of political settlements. Finally, the slippage in the ways in which transformation is used in relations to political settlements will be examined, with a view to drawing out what a transformative political settlement would entail in the context of agrarian change in contemporary Africa.
This theoretical critique of political settlements in African contexts will be followed by a reflection on political settlements as a lens into processes of inclusive agrarian transformation in Africa. This will begin with a consideration of the empirical literature in which political settlements are used to explore economic transformation and agrarian change in African countries. The political settlement lens will then focus on the insights of the three country case studies presented in the book. It is used to summarize and highlight what political settlements reveal about inclusive agrarian transformation in the sectoral and country contexts of the empirical chapters to come, and to examine what the empirical insights of the case studies can tell us about political settlements analysis. Core issues of political unsettlement, policy capture, adverse incorporation, and the tension between economic development and political consolidation will be explored as they arise in the various country cases, with a view to strengthening our understanding of the actual political dynamics of inclusive agrarian transformations, while also refining the concept of political settlements to improve its usefulness in contemporary African contexts.