15:00 - 16:30
Wed-B16-Talk VII-
Wed-Talk VII-
Room: B16
Chair/s:
Linus Hof
Core capacities of the mind like reasoning and decision making are exercised as responses to specific information-processing tasks. It is often assumed that these responses are strategic, taking into account resource limitations and trade-offs between the costs and quality of information-processing mechanisms. Yet, when the input information is missing, search must become part of the mind’s strategic response. This symposium features two tasks, inductive inferences and decisions under uncertainty, to highlight the strategic nature of information search (sampling). Marlene Hecht shows that if people consult their social network to make uncertain inferences, their search through the network is best described as sequential, limited, and less impactful for online contacts. Kevin Tiede presents work indicating that people increase their sampling effort to alleviate informational imbalances between described and experienced choice options. Linus Hof and Mikhail Spektor expand the symposium’s view on decisions from experience, demonstrating, for example, how sampling and integration strategies can interact to produce distinct choice patterns and psychoeconomic profiles. Doron Cohen concludes by presenting a simplified drift diffusion model. He uses the model to reconsider basic assumptions of sequential sampling approaches, which treat
information search as an evidence accumulation process. As a whole, the collection of talks suggests that our explanations of cognitive capacities and the phenomena they produce can be improved by postulating how these capacities implement a strategic information search.
­­Evidence Accumulation Models for Unimodal and Skewed Payoff Environments
Wed-B16-Talk VII-05
Presented by: Doron Cohen
Doron Cohen, Laura Fontanesi, Joerg Rieskamp
University of Basel
Sequential sampling models are one of the most dominant cognitive accounts in psychological research. These models assume decision makers accumulate evidence as a running sum of the observed evidence strength, until an absorbing decision boundary is reached. We test this summation-based model’s predictions in a value-based binary choice task with skewed (multimodal) and unimodal numerical payoff distributions. While previous studies tend to focus on the latter, we show that in such settings, summation-based models predictions mimic alternative accounts. One such alternative is a retrieval-based accumulation model, integrating insight from the Decisions from Experience and sequential sampling literatures. This simplified model assumes agents integrate evidence from memory, retrieving outcomes previously experienced in the most similar settings. Importantly, the predictions of the summation-based and retrieval-based models diverge in skewed settings, as they predict overreaction and underreaction to extreme observations, respectively. In Study 1, participants faced 60 different sequential sampling tasks, choosing between a unimodal (gaussian) option (e.g., “draw from ~N(8, 10)”) and either another unimodal option (e.g., “draw from ~N(16, 10)”), a left-skewed option (e.g., “draw from ~N(0, 10) with p = .9, ~N(160, 10) otherwise”) or a right-skewed option (e.g., “draw from ~N(16, 10) with p = .9, ~N(-144, 10) otherwise”). Results favor our retrieval-based accumulation model, including the prediction for the distinct impact of rare extreme observations. In Study 2, a reanalysis of a previous dataset clarifies the advantages of our model. We conclude with a discussion of the optimality, ecological validity, and feasibility of the retrieval-based accumulation account.
Keywords: Sequential sampling, Reliance on small samples, Decision from experience, Cognitive modelling