15:00 - 16:30
Wed-B16-Talk VII-
Wed-Talk VII-
Room: B16
Chair/s:
Linus Hof
Core capacities of the mind like reasoning and decision making are exercised as responses to specific information-processing tasks. It is often assumed that these responses are strategic, taking into account resource limitations and trade-offs between the costs and quality of information-processing mechanisms. Yet, when the input information is missing, search must become part of the mind’s strategic response. This symposium features two tasks, inductive inferences and decisions under uncertainty, to highlight the strategic nature of information search (sampling). Marlene Hecht shows that if people consult their social network to make uncertain inferences, their search through the network is best described as sequential, limited, and less impactful for online contacts. Kevin Tiede presents work indicating that people increase their sampling effort to alleviate informational imbalances between described and experienced choice options. Linus Hof and Mikhail Spektor expand the symposium’s view on decisions from experience, demonstrating, for example, how sampling and integration strategies can interact to produce distinct choice patterns and psychoeconomic profiles. Doron Cohen concludes by presenting a simplified drift diffusion model. He uses the model to reconsider basic assumptions of sequential sampling approaches, which treat
information search as an evidence accumulation process. As a whole, the collection of talks suggests that our explanations of cognitive capacities and the phenomena they produce can be improved by postulating how these capacities implement a strategic information search.
Sampling and Integration Strategies Can Shape Decisions from Experience
Wed-B16-Talk VII-03
Presented by: Linus Hof
Linus Hof 1, Veronika Zilker 1, 2, Thorsten Pachur 1, 2
1 TUM School of Management, Technical University of Munich, 2 Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Insitute for Human Development
At least 2 information-processing tasks underlie decisions from experience (DFE): information search (sampling) and information integration. Which strategies do we use to solve these tasks and how does their interplay shape the process of preference construction? Here, we model the interaction of different sampling and integration strategies within a sequential sampling framework. We simulate the implied sampling and decision processes for a set of binary choice problems. We find that the interplay of sampling and integration strategies can produce various systematic choice patterns. For instance, with a round-wise integration of outcomes, changes in the sampling strategy shift preferences for average returns to frequent returns. Such a shift causes low rates of expected value maximization and a robust underweighting of rare outcomes pattern. We also use cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to model the simulated choice data. While accounting for sampling error, we find that shifts in choice patterns due to changes in the information-processing strategies are reflected in characteristic shapes of CPT’s value and weighting function. For instance, preference for frequent returns due to a round-wise integration of outcomes and a back-and-forth sampling mechanism are linked to an S-shaped weighting function and a highly compressed value function. Our findings highlight that commonly observed choice patterns in DFE can be explained in terms of strategic responses to underlying search and integration tasks. They also underscore the potential of integrating different model classes and the potential of descriptive models such as CPT to capture characteristics of the actual information-processing mechanisms.
Keywords: decisions from experience, sampling, information integration, computational modeling, prospect theory