15:00 - 16:30
Wed-B16-Talk VII-
Wed-Talk VII-
Room: B16
Chair/s:
Linus Hof
Core capacities of the mind like reasoning and decision making are exercised as responses to specific information-processing tasks. It is often assumed that these responses are strategic, taking into account resource limitations and trade-offs between the costs and quality of information-processing mechanisms. Yet, when the input information is missing, search must become part of the mind’s strategic response. This symposium features two tasks, inductive inferences and decisions under uncertainty, to highlight the strategic nature of information search (sampling). Marlene Hecht shows that if people consult their social network to make uncertain inferences, their search through the network is best described as sequential, limited, and less impactful for online contacts. Kevin Tiede presents work indicating that people increase their sampling effort to alleviate informational imbalances between described and experienced choice options. Linus Hof and Mikhail Spektor expand the symposium’s view on decisions from experience, demonstrating, for example, how sampling and integration strategies can interact to produce distinct choice patterns and psychoeconomic profiles. Doron Cohen concludes by presenting a simplified drift diffusion model. He uses the model to reconsider basic assumptions of sequential sampling approaches, which treat
information search as an evidence accumulation process. As a whole, the collection of talks suggests that our explanations of cognitive capacities and the phenomena they produce can be improved by postulating how these capacities implement a strategic information search.
Social Sampling from Online and Offline Contacts
Wed-B16-Talk VII-01
Presented by: Marlene Hecht
Marlene Hecht 1, 2, Thorsten Pachur 1, 3, Christin Schulze 1
1 Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 2 Department of Psychology, Humboldt University of Berlin, 3 School of Management, Technical University of Munich
Decision makers often infer population-level social statistics such as risk frequencies or consumer preferences by recalling people from their own social networks from memory—that is, by social sampling. Although people’s social interactions increasingly occur on social media rather than through face-to-face contact, it is unclear which influence online social media contacts have on people’s inferences. In this study, we examine to what extent social sampling is affected by whether one usually interacts with a person online or offline, and which weight online contacts have for people’s inferences. Participants judged the prevalence of different health issues (e.g., anxiety disorders) and recalled people in their personal social networks who had experienced each issue. For each recalled case, participants indicated the primary mode of contact (offline, online, or mixed) and the social category (self, family member, friend, or acquaintance). Based on Bayesian hierarchical mixture modeling, we compared sequential, limited social sampling strategies guided by either contact mode or social category to exhaustive search and guessing. Most participants were best described by a strategy that assumes limited rather than exhaustive search. Social sampling based on contact mode provided the best account for around a third of participants. The estimated model parameters suggested that participants relied less strongly on information from online contacts than on information from other social subgroups. Thus, in addition to demonstrating that the mode of contact is used to guide social sampling, our results suggest that social media contacts are less important for people’s inferences than face-to-face contacts.
Keywords: sampling, online networks, decisions under uncertainty, probabilistic inference, heuristics