Does the form matter? Effects of visual presentation of base rates on the base rate neglect in future HR managers
Tue-P3-Poster II-106
Presented by: Nikola Petrovic
Base rate neglect (BRN) refers to the human tendency to neglect explicitly given a priori probabilities while judging. This phenomenon was firmly registered across many domains of people’s cognitive functioning. In management, accurate reasoning based on probabilities is an important skill. Predicting employees’ behavior given on probabilities is often a requirement for HR managers. Yet, based on our research, there is still no direct experimental data that illustrate the presence of BRN in HRs. Therefore we aimed to explore if HR managers are sensitive to BRN and if visual presentation of base rates improves their reasoning. Participants (N = 65), who were postgraduate students of HR management, solved 20 BRN tasks, that varied within subjects, in representativity of description and format of base rates, yielding 4 different types of tasks. Within each type of task, five different situations were presented. Hence, we computed the proportions of the biased answers for every participant for each type of the task. The two-way repeated-measures ANOVA revealed that the proportion of biased answers is significantly higher on the representative tasks (F (1,64) = 117.870, p < .001, η2 = .470) and when the tasks presented visually (F (1,64) = 20.742, p < .001; η2 = .047), but that there is no interaction between representativity and format. Theese results indicate that BRN is expectedly present among future HR managers. Unexpectedly, the visual presentation of base rates didn’t improve reasoning, possibly because the form of visualization we used wasn’t properly fitted in the task.
Keywords: base rate neglect, HR management, judging, probabilities