Communicating uncertainty about scientific insights may either have no, negative, or positive effects on how trustworthy the audience perceives respective communicators (Ratcliff et al., 2022). One explanation for this evidence could be that perceptions of trustworthiness depend on individuals’ preferences about whether and what uncertainty they want communicated (see for instance Wegwarth et al., 2020). Ratcliff and colleagues (2018) found that people with a high uncertainty preference perceived a scientist who communicated uncertainty as more trustworthy in contrast to people with a low uncertainty preference. However, they measured a general uncertainty preference that captures individual’s attitudes toward science more broadly, although uncertainty is actually multifaceted, both in terms of technical aspects (imprecision, conflict, or lack of evidence; Gustafson et al., 2020) and in terms of its levels (quality of evidence framework GRADE, van der Bles, 2020).
Using preliminary online studies, we are developing a measurement instrument that systematically captures preferences in uncertainty communication. We aim to use the developed instrument in a large-scale mixed-method sample to describe, on the one hand, the general population’s differential preferences for uncertainty types and levels and to examine factors that influence these preferences, such as prior knowledge of evidence and uncertainty. On the other hand, we want to investigate whether these preferences are also reflected in trustworthiness perceptions when individuals are actually confronted with presentations of scientific uncertainty aspects and levels.