08:30 - 10:00
Mon-B16-Talk I-
Mon-Talk I-
Room: B16
Chair/s:
Linda McCaughey
Cognitive-ecological approaches have emphasised the influence of the information sample on judgements and decisions. These information samples are often actively solicited and thus crucially influenced by the agent’s cognitive processing and goals. This symposium will shed light on how these influences extend to judgements and decisions via the underlying information sampling process. Seidler will discuss how basic cognitive processes in number perception and integration impact economic judgement when information is acquired by sequentially sampling positive and negative numbers. Prager will highlight diagnosticity as a crucial determinant of sampling and judgement behaviour. In a personnel selection context, not only the characteristics of the information on the candidate, but also their interaction with characteristics of the target job profile determined information search, job-fit judgements and confidence. Taking up confidence, McCaughey will examine how accumulated evidence and subjective confidence are used to regulate the amount of sampled information and discuss potential ways of how the two interact. Niese tested the role of sampling in an evaluative conditioning context and will present findings demonstrating that people show a positive evaluative shift after sampling conditioned stimuli more (vs. less frequently), regardless of whether a stimulus is paired with positive or negative unconditioned stimuli. Importantly, this effect is moderated by people’s sampling goals. Biella will explain how the exploration of the social environment strongly depends on whether the information search is interested (information is immediately rewarding conditionally on its pleasantness) or disinterested (information is accumulated for later use). How biased an information sample is depends on which of the two dominates the sampling process. The final discussion will engage the audience in a discussion about how these research questions and insights can be connected in the name of theory integration.
Processing of Negative Numbers and its Impact on Economic Judgement
Mon-B16-Talk I-01
Presented by: Hannah Seidler
Hannah Seidler 1, Sebastian Olschewski 2, 3, Benjamin Scheibehenne 1
1 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2 University of Basel, 3 Warwick Business School
The perception and integration of numeric information is a prerequisite for many decisions in our daily life, such as when assessing risks. Research in numeric cognition indicates, that positive numbers are mentally represented on a compressed mental number line (CMNL), i.e., the same difference between two numerosities is perceived as smaller for greater numerosities than for smaller ones (e.g., Izard & Dehaene, 2008). The CMNL predicts an underestimation of the mean for sequences of positive numbers. This suggests that for a risky lottery, a subjective certainty equivalent below the expected value may not only be due to preferences, such as risk aversion, but also due to perceptual biases in the mental representation of numbers (Khaw et al., 2021; Olschewski et al., 2021). We tested whether the assumption of a CMNL also applies to negative numbers and thus partially explains risk-seeking behavior in the loss domain. Using a fixed-sampling paradigm, participants sequentially sampled 20 numbers drawn from an underlying distribution and estimated the sequence’s mean. The sequences either contained only positive numbers, only negative numbers, or both (i.e. mixed sequences) and varied in mean and standard deviation. In line with a CMNL for absolute magnitudes, we found an underestimation for positive and an overestimation for negative sequences, indicating that both, risk seeking and risk aversion could partly be explained by biases in number perception. However, the pattern reversed for mixed sequences. We discuss the impact on economic judgments when both, gains and losses are involved.
Keywords: decision-making, Decision-from-Experience, number perception, risk preferences