Email), Christian Janz, (Email), Tanja Mucha">
12:30 - 13:30
Poster Session
Room: Lunches Space
GDP Flash Estimates for Germany
Xaver Dickopf, (Email), Christian Janz, (Email), Tanja Mucha, (Email)
Federal Statistical Office Germany (Destatis), Wiesbaden
In spring 2016, Eurostat began publishing a first so-called preliminary flash estimate for the quarterly GDP of the European Union and the euro area within 30 days after the end of the quarter. This European GDP flash is currently based on national data of 17 member states that cover 94% of the GDP of the euro area and 90% of the GDP of the European Union (as of May 2018). The data for Germany are provided by the Federal Statistical Office that has an experience of more than 15 years in conducting GDP flash estimates. This paper presents the German contribution to the European preliminary flash estimate at t+30. It shows the way from the first study on the feasibility of a quarterly German flash estimate beginning in 2002 towards the current situation of the flash estimate within the calculations of the German and the European GDP. The German GDP flash estimate can be characterised as a three-pillar-approach that consists of • an econometric calculation, • an experts’ calculation, • the reconciliation of the econometric and the experts’ calculation. All three pillars of the German GDP flash estimate are discussed with a focus set on their properties and their risks and opportunities. The paper ends with the quality of the German flash estimates at t+30 days and the way forward.


Reference:
POST03-002
Session:
New Methods & Techniques
Presenter/s:
Xaver Dickopf
Presentation type:
Poster presentation
Room:
Lunches Space
Date:
Thursday, 14 March
Time:
12:30 - 13:30
Session times:
12:30 - 13:30