13:30 - 15:30
Talking to Digital Twins — The Wisdom of Digital Twins
›
Location: LI-1306
Chair/s:
Raymond Duch, Matias Fuentes Becerra

The afternoon extends the morning’s method beyond elections. The same architecture — unobtrusively harvesting someone’s public posts, repeatedly interviewing an LLM “digital twin” built from them, and applying panel econometrics to the result — turns scattered, self-selected commentary into a balanced, forward-looking panel of on-demand forecasters. We work through three applications. In financial markets, we build digital twins of “finfluencers” and interview them daily, recovering their stock-level beliefs even on days they post nothing, and show that these signals predict the cross-section of S&P 500 returns without look-ahead bias (drawing on our Talking to Digital Twins study, Bowles et al., 2026). We then turn to forecasting and prediction-market applications, and to a measurement problem the method is unusually suited to: eliciting views on sensitive topics people are reluctant to volunteer — treating silence itself as a belief state. Participants build a twin, run a repeated-interview protocol, assemble the panel, and evaluate a simple forecast.

Aimed at financial economists, quantitative and survey researchers, and data scientists comfortable with R; the morning session is helpful but not required.

Time Session
13:30–13:55 From polls to markets
13:55–14:30 Finfluencer twins and S&P 500 signals
14:30–15:15 Hands-on: Build a digital twin
15:15–15:30 Backtesting and prediction markets