As traditional surveys grow more expensive and response rates collapse, large language models offer a provocative alternative: inferring public opinion from the digital traces people already leave behind. This hands-on workshop walks participants through PoSSUM — our Protocol for Surveying Social Media Users with Multimodal LLMs — the AI polling method whose state-by-state forecasts of the 2024 US presidential election tracked, and at times outperformed, the leading poll aggregators. We move through the full pipeline: designing the digital interview, building a “silicon” sample of social-media users, and producing bias-corrected estimates with multilevel regression and post-stratification (MrP) in R, validated against ground-truth election results. A featured sub-theme is our Swiss “Silicon Politicians” study, which predicts how individual politicians and citizens vote in referendums from their social-media traces alone — and showcases the app we built around it. Throughout, we keep the harder question in view, drawing on the recent APSA report Public Opinion in the Age of AI: when does simulating respondents enrich measurement, and when does it risk manufacturing the opinion it claims to observe?
Aimed at pollsters, political scientists, and survey methodologists comfortable with R; no machine-learning background required.
| Time | Session |
|---|---|
| 09:00–09:30 | Why AI polling? |
| 09:30–10:10 | PoSSUM and the 2024 US election case |
| 10:25–11:30 | Hands-on: Build a silicon sample and run MrP |
| 11:30–12:05 | Swiss 'Silicon Politicians' demo |
| 12:05–12:30 | Discussion & Q&A |