11:00 - 12:30
Location: LI-1314
Chair/s:
Peiran Jiao
Discussant/s:
Niranjan Sapkota
Keyu Zhang - The Legitimacy Game: How “PhD-Grade” Data Became the Currency of AI Hype and Anxiety in China
Raymond Duch - Talking to Digital Twins: Selective Disclosure and Belief Measurement in Financial Social Media
Peiran Jiao - Narratives, Beliefs and Asset Prices
Xu Zhang - Retail Investor Forum Topic Attention and Stock Market Dynamics
Submission 122
Talking to Digital Twins: Selective Disclosure and Belief Measurement in Financial Social Media
Panel 4-LI-1314-03
Presented by: Raymond Duch
Raymond Duch 1, Sorin Sorescu 2, Boone Bowles 2
1 University of Oxford
2 TAMU

Social media affect financial markets, but public posts by financial media personas are voluntary disclosures, hence undisclosed views are unobserved. We address this measurement problem by conducting repeated, real-time interviews of “digital twins'' built from finfluencers' X accounts. The interviews recover stock-level public-persona belief proxies even when no public recommendation is made. Because interview responses are generated before the return windows, the design avoids look-ahead bias. We show that digital-twin responses predict the cross section of large-cap stock returns in the expected direction. Repeated real-time interviews therefore show how selective disclosure can be turned into measurable panels of market views.Just created for emails