11:00 - 12:30
Location: LI-1314
Chair/s:
Peiran Jiao
Discussant/s:
Niranjan Sapkota
Keyu Zhang - The Legitimacy Game: How “PhD-Grade” Data Became the Currency of AI Hype and Anxiety in China
Raymond Duch - Talking to Digital Twins: Selective Disclosure and Belief Measurement in Financial Social Media
Peiran Jiao - Narratives, Beliefs and Asset Prices
Xu Zhang - Retail Investor Forum Topic Attention and Stock Market Dynamics
Submission 21
Retail Investor Forum Topic Attention and Stock Market Dynamics
Panel 4-LI-1314-02
Presented by: Xu Zhang
Zihao Qu 1, Xu Zhang 1, Peiran Jiao 2
1 Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)
2 Maastricht University
We study retail investors' topic-specific attention and its stock-return predictability. From 340 million posts on China's largest stock forum, we build firm-day attention measures for 200 interpretable topics. Using LASSO, we identify the most predictive topic: a one-standard-deviation rise in its attention predicts 0.44–0.72 percentage points lower next-month returns across different keyword-intensity thresholds, with partial reversal within one to two months. Predictions are stronger among smaller, non-main-board firms, and post-2015. The results remain robust to orthogonalization against recent returns, aggregate post sentiment controls, and alternative information channels.