Submission 16
The Disappearing Conflict: Tracking Political Attention to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Across Five Million Speeches
Panel 2-Multi-Function Room 2 (19/F LAU)-03
Presented by: Sascha Riaz
Political attention is a precondition for conflict resolution. Domestically, sustained engagement from elites and publics generates the political will to pursue costly peace processes. Internationally, attention from foreign governments sustains diplomatic pressure, mediating capacity, and reputational costs for inaction. We document the erosion of both dimensions in the decades preceding October 7, 2023. Analyzing parliamentary speeches in Israel's Knesset, alongside the US Congress, the European Parliament (total N = 5 million speeches), Israeli newspaper op-eds, and public opinion data from 15 election surveys, we show that political attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict declined continuously from the 1990s through 2022 – both within Israel and across NATO countries. To label this volume of multilingual text data, we deploy large language models to identify conflict-related content and to distinguish between security-framed and diplomacy-framed discussions, enabling measurement at a scale and granularity infeasible with conventional coding approaches. Critically, the decline in discussions of peace and conflict resolution was steeper still: even when elites discussed the conflict, they increasingly did so in security terms rather than diplomatic ones. In Israeli public opinion, the share of citizens identifying the conflict as the most important political issue fell from 80% in 1996 to 21% in 2022. Parallel declines in NATO member states suggest a global withdrawal of political attention, not merely an Israeli domestic phenomenon. While October 7 sharply restored attention to the conflict across all data sources, discussions of conflict resolution remain at historic lows. Our findings carry a broader lesson for the study of intractable conflicts: even as objective conditions persist or worsen, political salience can decline to the point where the domestic and international foundations for peace quietly erode.