Submission 90
Persuasion and Precision: How Generative AI Moves Inflation Expectations
Panel 2-LI-2308-01
Presented by: Yang Lu
Household inflation expectations have become an explicit target of monetary policy, yet
they respond weakly to official communication and sit persistently above professional
forecasts. As people increasingly consult generative-AI chatbots about the economy, we
examine whether such conversations move inflation expectations and what makes them
persuasive. Across three preregistered experiments (N = 3,772), participants forecast
U.S. inflation over the next twelve months, discuss their forecast with a partner, and can
then revise it. An AI partner moves forecasts substantially more than a human partner,
whether or not participants can converse with it (Study 1). Randomizing five features of
the chatbot's conversational style independently, we find that challenging, rather than
affirming, the participant's view drives persuasion (Study 2). A chatbot that combines the
most persuasive features outperforms a generic prompt and leaves participants more confident in
their revised beliefs (Study 3). Conversational AI can thus move expectations that official
communication has struggled to reach.