10:15 - 11:45
Location: LI-2308
Chair/s:
David Hagmann
Discussant/s:
Ethan Busby
Sharon Xuejing Zuo - Learning with Machines: A Randomized Evaluation of AI-Assisted Education in Rural Middle Schools in China
Yang Lu - Persuasion and Precision: How Generative AI Moves Inflation Expectations
Arash Pourebrahimi - Policy Content, Distributional Conflict, and Contestation in the Council of the European Union
David Hagmann - Improving Communication with Generative Artificial Intelligence
Submission 90
Persuasion and Precision: How Generative AI Moves Inflation Expectations
Panel 2-LI-2308-01
Presented by: Yang Lu
Yang Lu, David Hagmann
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Household inflation expectations have become an explicit target of monetary policy, yet

they respond weakly to official communication and sit persistently above professional

forecasts. As people increasingly consult generative-AI chatbots about the economy, we

examine whether such conversations move inflation expectations and what makes them

persuasive. Across three preregistered experiments (N = 3,772), participants forecast

U.S. inflation over the next twelve months, discuss their forecast with a partner, and can

then revise it. An AI partner moves forecasts substantially more than a human partner,

whether or not participants can converse with it (Study 1). Randomizing five features of

the chatbot's conversational style independently, we find that challenging, rather than

affirming, the participant's view drives persuasion (Study 2). A chatbot that combines the

most persuasive features outperforms a generic prompt and leaves participants more confident in

their revised beliefs (Study 3). Conversational AI can thus move expectations that official

communication has struggled to reach.