Repression and dissent in moments of uncertainty: Panel data evidence from Zimbabwe
P12-3
Presented by: Adrienne LeBas
State repression and post-election protest are common in modern elections, especially in
hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. This article
draws on unique panel data from the months spanning Zimbabwe’s 2018 election, during which
citizens observed both repression and dissent. Using a difference-in-difference estimator, we
assess change in dissent intentions following exposure to repression and dissent, and we assess
three individual-level mechanisms hypothesized to drive individual responses. We find evidence
that exposure to repression spurs backlash and exposure to dissent is mobilizing around this
potentially pivotal election. Patterns in measures of potential mechanisms suggest that the
effects of protest may be driven by information updating, while repression seems to mobilize
via relational and emotional mechanisms despite increased perceptions of risk. We find no
evidence of counter-mobilization by ruling party supporters, and exposure to local events is
more powerful than that mediated by social media.
hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. This article
draws on unique panel data from the months spanning Zimbabwe’s 2018 election, during which
citizens observed both repression and dissent. Using a difference-in-difference estimator, we
assess change in dissent intentions following exposure to repression and dissent, and we assess
three individual-level mechanisms hypothesized to drive individual responses. We find evidence
that exposure to repression spurs backlash and exposure to dissent is mobilizing around this
potentially pivotal election. Patterns in measures of potential mechanisms suggest that the
effects of protest may be driven by information updating, while repression seems to mobilize
via relational and emotional mechanisms despite increased perceptions of risk. We find no
evidence of counter-mobilization by ruling party supporters, and exposure to local events is
more powerful than that mediated by social media.