12:00 - 13:00
Thu-SPOT06
Chair:
Alexander Kowarik
Moving from GDP Flash Estimates to GDP Nowcasts
Poster presentation
Xaver Dickopf, (Email), Arne Ackermann, (Email)
Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis)

In times of crises policymakers need to get a quick overview over the economic performance of a country. Therefore, prompt and accurate GDP estimates are essential.

While official GDP flash estimates are published 30 days after the end of a quarter, Germany launched a feasibility study to nowcast GDP already 10 days after the end of a quarter.

To outweigh missing data at this early point, different econometric models (bridge models, dynamic factor models as well as machine learning methods) and a variety of early economic indicators are tested. The presentation includes a preliminary assessment of the GDP nowcast accuracy.