When thinking about their personal future, people in Western countries tend to have a positivity bias, such that they typically generate more positive than negative events. In contrast, when thinking about the future of their country, they usually show a negativity bias, with more negative than positive events being generated. The goal of the present study was to replicate these patterns in a German sample (N = 113) and to additionally explore the role of likelihood of occurrence for events generated for the future. A fluency task with different prompts was used, asking participants to generate personal and collective events for both the past and the future. Participants then rated each event’s valence and, in the case of future events, also judged the probability for the event to actually happen in the future. As expected, participants showed a positivity bias in the personal domain and a negativity bias in the collective domain, irrespective of whether they were asked about the past or the future. Participants considered their generated future events to be fairly likely, with average probability estimates of around 67%. Moreover, a significant interaction between domain and valence was observed: In the personal domain, positive events were considered as more likely than negative ones, while in the collective domain, negative events were considered as slightly more likely than positive ones. These results confirm findings from prior studies conducted in other Western countries and introduce probability estimates as a potential point of interest for collective future thinking research.