Submission 269
A Comprehensive Comparison of Static Models of Perceptual Confidence
SymposiumTalk-02
Presented by: Manuel Rausch
Recent years have seen a substantial proliferation of computational models of confidence and metacognition. The most widely used model—typically assumed without explicit discussion or empirical validation—is the Independent Truncated Gaussian (ITG) model, which underlies the popular meta-d′/d′ measure of metacognitive ability. However, previous modelling studies of perceptual confidence have not included the ITG in formal model comparisons.
In the present study, I compare the fit of the ITG to ten alternative models of confidence and metacognition, all derived from signal detection theory, in a reanalysis of 11 previously published experiments and two new ones. Across all 13 experiments, at least one alternative model provides a better fit than the ITG.
In masked orientation discrimination, low-contrast discrimination, and random-dot motion tasks, the best fits were obtained by either the Weighted Evidence and Visibility model or its lognormal variant, suggesting that at least two sources of evidence underlie perceptual confidence—one related to the discrimination judgment and another to the reliability of perceptual evidence. In a line-length discrimination task, the best fit was achieved by the Independent Gaussian model (without truncation), implying that confidence in this task is primarily informed by evidence related to the discrimination choice collected in parallel to the decision process. Finally, in a dot-numerosity discrimination task, the best fit was obtained by the Signal Detection Rating model, indicating that confidence can, in this specific case, be explained by the decision process alone.
Overall, these results suggest that the field’s widespread reliance on meta-d′/d′ is misplaced.