15:30 - 17:00
Room: Room #1
Parallel Sessions
Chair/s:
Isabel Santos
“Branch and Bound” approach to risk management, pointing towards a balanced compromise between risk perception and real-time scenarios
Kari Dakakni
ISU, 50011, Ames, United States

There is considerable evidence that culture influences organization, and organization behaviour influences system safety, in terms of decision taken, risk perception, choices, actions, and outcomes.

Despite the acknowledgement of it, there is a penury of understanding involved on how this behaviour may affect the overall organizational capacity to recover different forms of disruption. In other terms, how the behaviour affects the organization resilience.

The development of socio-technical models are linked with the recognition that physical components are usually assumed reliable, because they correspond to certain specifications and requirements within the system in which they are allocated. An extension of this characteristic beyond the component itself, in a context of the whole, would lead either to a mistake. In fact, safety is a property of the system and its effectiveness is determined by a realistic risk assessment, which comprehends, besides the design of the physical components, the social interdependencies, as primary foundation of organizational factors and adaptation. The focus of this paper is to evaluate how in this complex scenario, the allotted time to select and prioritize relevant information, would impact an effective decision making.

In this effort, perception and heuristics enable to gather faster the significant data. However, the lack of the necessary due time to spend for analysing the complexity of the data, generates distorted overviews.

Further to embrace a proactive approach without falling into anachronistic conflict determined by the use of model based on accidents dynamics shaped by technologies of the past, a branch and bound method, incorporating stochastic simulation, has been developed. The purpose is to capture the interactions among the tripod, risk perception, risk consequences (resilience), and risk information within a portfolio in respect of the time spent for decision making process and risk abatement efforts. The paper contribution is to evaluate a realistic scenario in risk management to pointing towards a balanced compromise between perception and real-time scenarios with the specified weighted variables of the tripod described to improve system safety.


Reference:
We-S73-TT13-OC-002
Session:
Resilience, decision-making and uncertainty II
Presenter/s:
Kari Dakakni
Presentation type:
Oral Communication
Room:
Room #1
Chair/s:
Isabel Santos
Date:
Wednesday, June 21st
Time:
15:45 - 16:00
Session times:
15:30 - 17:00