SRA-E Lisbon 2017

Decisions that involve multiple stakeholders, who have different interests and backgrounds, are characterized by complexity, interdependency, interconnectedness, and uncertainty. The success of many decision frameworks that involve multiple stakeholders depends heavily on the ability of stakeholders to provide preferences and tradeoffs for the investigated issue. Recent developments in risk assessment and risk management have addressed priority setting for systems that involve multiple stakeholders, multiple objectives, and uncertainty in many scientific fields, such as climate change, economy, social science, technology, and other fields. However, they fail to address the future influence of the relative importance assigned to each stakeholder in the priority setting. Furthermore, a certain assumption, such as the equal importance of the multiple stakeholders, is insufficient for addressing the complexities of systems. This study addresses the need to extend the multiple stakeholders scenario-based preferences methodology to account for the following needed research components. First, it will integrate the relative importance of multiple stakeholders in a scenario-based preferences model. Moreover, the weight of the influence of each stakeholder in the priority setting process will be based on the relative importance of that stakeholder. Thus, a stakeholder with a high level of power and interest will have a high level of influence in the priority setting. Second, it will develop a resilience analytics approach for the scenario-based approach that supports strategic planning after the introduction of the relative importance of multiple stakeholders. The outcomes from the resilience analysis will prevent the decision maker from considering a scenario in the priority setting to be a disruptive scenario if the stakeholder has low relative importance among other stakeholders. To demonstrate the technical methodology of this study, there will be a case study on integrating the effect of the relative importance of multiple stakeholders’ preferences with the influence of scenarios on priorities in system resilience for a port system.