SRA-E Lisbon 2017

Influenza pandemics are usually naturally occurring phenomena. It is not a question if but when the next pandemic will happen. In order to manage future pandemics, pandemic preparedness plans have been developed. In Europe, all 28 member states of the European Union (EU) have influenza pandemic preparedness plans in place. However, it is impossible to know when the next pandemic will occur or which influenza virus strain will cause it. There are several potential pandemic pathogens, most notably the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) (also known as the “Bird flu”). Several scientific research teams have, since 2012, created HPAI A(H5N1) virus that can efficiently be transmitted in aerosol between mammals such as ferrets. Consequently, this have generated a debate on the potential risks involved with this type of research, unintentional and intentional releases. In this article, we discuss the potential risk of an influenza pandemic induced by humans, either intentional by terrorists or states or unintentional by a release from a research laboratory with H5N1. The foundation for this discussion is the resultst from the Swedish National Risk Assessment pandemic scenario from 2013 togehter with the risks of intentional or unintentional release of a pandemic virus.