This research will assess the interconnected risk of space and cyberspace by using the threat-medium-consequence framework, and examine how adverse effects of threats to space system diffuse through cyberspace into a variety of critical infrastructures and eventually bring unexpected consequences in society. In conclusion, this research will discuss the possible ways to enable better management of, and effective response to, the interconnected risks.
Space system is an integral part of global information infrastructures on which modern society is deeply reliant in many facets. However, safe space operation is facing a wide variety of threats and hazards. Intentional threats include many different ways to take counerspace measures such as ASAT and cyber attacks. It is also likely that those who have malicious intent may embed malware or malicious program into the component of space system during the course of supply chains. Beside, space system is also facing unintentional threats, including a growing number of space debris and extreme space weather. All these threats and hazards, regardless of whether malicious intention actually exists, potentially have adverse physical (hard kill) or non-physical (soft kill) effects on the function of entire space system
Such impacts on space system cause the loss or disruption of space-based information and applications such as satellite communication and GNSS services, which are critical to the operation of critical infrastructures. The influences potentially bring far-reaching ramifications in society: turmoil in financial market, traffic disturbance, the knockout of power grid, disruption of communication and information systems, and so on. These situations will also be deteriorated by the loss of credibility of space system and space-enabled infrastructures. As a result, our society will potentially face a variety of unexpected consequences in such areas as security, defense, economy, and everyday life of people. Furthermore, a cascading effect may also bring other consequences in different sectors of society.
In this situation, because it seems to be highly difficult to prevent all the threats to space system, effective management of the interconnected risks requires the ways to prepare for any eventuality by enhancing resilience of the entire society beyond the space sector and to enable a quick response after the event through cross-sectoral collaboration.
This research will bring a better understanding of the complex nature of the risks coming from the interconnectedness of space and cyberspace. It will contribute to considering resilient ways to effectively deal with the interconnected risks.