Toward realistic, plausible, positive futures for the planet
Contributed session - Approaches and methods for understanding social-ecological system dynamics
11:30 - 13:00
The world has entered the Anthropocene in which the social and ecological are increasingly entangled in surprising and novel ways. Resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in the face of these dramatic changes. Building resilience in a world of surprise and novelty require methods that bring multiple futures into current decision making. Scenario planning is one approach that has been increasingly used in research and science-policy processes, in particular places and in international assessment such as IPBES.
Scenarios are plausible stories about how the future of a social-ecological system might unfold. Scenario planning can be an important tool in social-ecological transformations because it forces people to think explicitly about alternative situations, consider key uncertainties and create an understanding that a different order of things is possible. We will bring together leading scholars from diverse disciplines to create a novel overview of the multiple roles scenarios can have in social-ecological transformations.
Joost Vervoort1, 2, Garry Peterson 3, David Farrell 4, Laura Pereira 5, Tanja Hichert 5, Rika Preiser 5, Oonsie Biggs 5, Elena Bennett 6
1 Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands, 2 University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, 3 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden, 4 Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, United Kingdom, 5 Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 6 McGill University, Montreal, Canada