Scenarios for transformative pathways in social-ecological systems
There is growing recognition that actions to enhance natural capital and the supply and reliability of ecosystem services are urgently needed at local, regional, and global scales. But in a rapidly changing world, such initiatives cannot succeed without investing in social-ecological resilience. A central challenge of managing the resilience of social-ecological systems is posed by slowly unfolding dynamics and considerable uncertainty about future pathways. A powerful tool for envisioning what the future can and might hold for ecosystem services in a social-ecological context, is the creation of scenarios. The use of scenario planning for ecosystem services and transformation of social-ecological systems is ripe for improvement. For example, by better incorporating models of ecosystem services in the scenario planning process. InVEST is a well‐developed and widely-applied suite of models to map and value different types of ecosystem services. InVEST has been continually developed and expanded by the Natural Capital Project, and its modular design provides an effective tool for exploring the likely outcomes of alternative management and climate scenarios and for evaluating trade‐offs among sectors, services, and beneficiaries. InVEST models are well suited for identifying spatial patterns in the provision and value of ecosystem services on the current landscape or under future scenarios, and trade‐offs between management scenarios. This talk will outline some ideas and ways to advance and integrate scientific understanding of how social-ecological scenario planning can integrate ecosystem service models, such as InVEST, and formalize some lessons learned from resilience work and from engagements in decisions to bring the cutting edge of academic thinking on this subject into best practices.
Contributed session oral presentation
Monday, 21 August
11:30 - 13:00
11:30 - 13:00