Contributed session - Approaches and methods for understanding social-ecological system dynamics
C4 (125)
11:30 - 13:00
Chair/s:
Albert Norström
Participatory Social-Ecological Scenario Planning: Approaches and Frontiers
Garry Peterson 1, Joost Vervoort 2
1 Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
2 Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Scenario planning can be an important tool in social-ecological transformations because it forces people to think explicitly about alternative situations, consider key uncertainties and create an understanding that a different order of things is possible.

Participatory scenario planning is an increasingly popular tool in place-based social-ecological research and practice. Participatory social-ecological scenarios can serve as a platform for dialogue, create new understanding of social-ecological dynamics that bridges multiple perspectives, models & data. Consequently these processes can improve complexity thinking, in particular awareness of surprise, uncertainty and as well as identify apparent conflicts and contradictions. Furthermore, due to their narrative structure scenarios can be a good tool to communicate such insights more widely than among those involved in the scenario process. However, participatory scenario planning are time consuming, are weak at exploring cross-scale interactions, and coping with divergent power, goals, and capacities of participants, and a lack of clear methods, standards or evaluations impairs the use and advancement of participatory scenario planning.

Key frontiers for participatory scenario planning are 1) transparent methods for producing scenario dynamics, 2) methods that consider surprising and implausible futures which are possible and maybe even likely, 3) better incorporating cross-scale dynamics into scenarios, 4) better and more transparent linkages between quantitative and qualitative data & models, 5) better use of games in scenario development, 6) better planning for iteration and learning within individual scenario processes and 7) developing an open social-ecological scenarios community of practice.

Presenter/s:
Garry Peterson
Presentation type:
Contributed session oral presentation
Room:
C4 (125)
Chair/s:
Albert Norström
Date:
Monday, 21 August
Time:
11:30 - 13:00
Session times:
11:30 - 13:00