Submission 355
Distributed Green Hydrogen from Renewable Curtailment: A Techno-economic Study for Decarbonizing Heavy-Duty Road Freight in Southeast Brazil
70 GIW26-355
Presented by: Giovani Giulio Tristão Thibes Vieira
The accelerated penetration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) in Brazil — particularly utility-scale wind and solar plants alongside the exponential growth of distributed micro and mini generation (MMGD) — has driven a sharp increase in
curtailment events since 2023. Because MMGD is not dispatched by the National System Operator (ONS), the curtailment burden falls disproportionately on centralized generators, while a sizeable share of clean electricity is wasted. In parallel, the Brazilian heavy-duty road freight sector remains diesel-dependent, accounting for roughly 22–24% of total transport CO2 emissions and representing one of the country's hardest-to-abate segments. This work investigates whether curtailed renewable electricity, geographically reallocated to MMGD locations, can support a decentralized green hydrogen network to fuel heavy-duty fuel-cell vehicles in Brazil's Southeast region.
The study combines field/operational datasets from ONS (semi-hourly curtailment, April 2024 – December 2025), ANEEL (MMGD plant registry), EPE (self-consumption factors), PVGIS (hourly irradiance via pvlib), DNIT (federal road network and traffic
counts) and BEN/SEEG (energy and emissions). The Southeast region was partitioned into a 1,850-hexagon grid in QGIS, enabling spatial aggregation of distributed generation, reallocated curtailment, and freight demand. Curtailment was first
redistributed to MMGD plants according to their generation profile and self-consumption share, with the residual fraction allocated homogeneously across cells. Local PEM electrolyzers and hydrogen refueling stations (HRS) were then sized per cell, with
electrolyzer capacity treated as the main decision variable across four operating scenarios (full-load vs. variable-load, with and without battery buffering). Best configurations were selected through a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model
weighting hydrogen output, operating hours, battery size and LCOH. Economic performance was assessed through NPV and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), including sensitivity analysis on CAPEX, stack lifetime and water cost.
Preliminary results indicate that energetic curtailment alone reached approximately 17.5 TWh in the analyzed period, with the Southeast concentrating about 47% of solar curtailment, offering substantial feedstock for distributed hydrogen production aligned with the densest freight corridors. The decentralized configuration shows potential to reduce wasted renewable electricity while building an HRS backbone matched to MMGD geography, although LCOH remains sensitive to electrolyzer CAPEX and stack
replacement.This undergraduate graduation project thus delivers an original techno-economic and geospatial assessment, providing a quantitative basis for integrating curtailment recovery, distributed generation and heavy-duty transport decarbonization in Brazil.