Wind & Solar Track
18:45 - 20:15
Room: Douro IV + Douro VI
Submission 146
A Multi-Source Hierarchical Framework for Net Load and Self-Consumption Forecasting in Distributed Grid Planning
29 GIW26-146
Presented by: Adrian Carrillo-Galvez
Rita P. Marques 1, Wilson E. Chumbi 2, Sergio Zambrano-Asanza 1, Adrian Carrillo-Galvez 1, Tiago Soares 1
1 INESC TEC, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Portugal
2 Department of Electrical Engineering, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Brazil

To enable granular spatial planning under high distributed energy resource penetration, this paper proposes a multi-source hierarchical forecasting framework that reconciles net electricity consumption and installed solar self-consumption capacity. Utilizing real-world smart metering and production unit records from the E-REDES Open Data Portal, demand and capacity dynamics are modeled across four administrative levels in mainland Portugal: national, district, municipal, and parish tiers. Candidate baseline statistical models, including AutoARIMA, AutoETS, and MSTL, are evaluated alongside Bottom-Up, Top-Down, Middle-Out, and Minimum Trace (MinTrace) reconciliation techniques to guarantee strict spatial coherence. The empirical evaluation demonstrates that AutoARIMA paired with MinTrace reconciliation achieves optimal cross-hierarchy alignment, yielding the most robust continuous growth trajectories for solar self-consumption capacity. For net load forecasting, Top-Down reconciliation preserves macro-scale aggregate precision, whereas Bottom-Up captures localized consumption volatility driven by behind-the-meter PV adoption at the granular parish level. Furthermore, spatial disaggregation of the reconciled forecasts identifies critical high-growth expansion clusters, equipping distribution system operators with actionable insights to prioritize local grid reinforcements and effectively mitigate hosting capacity constraints. Overall, this framework optimizes model selection to support data-driven distribution network planning.