The Portuguese National Hydrogen Strategy was launched in 2020. It has recently been under review, considering updated information on the actual projects being implemented and on recent technological and cost trends, as well as on adjusted governmental and stakeholders' views about the role of gases in the energy system and about security of supply.

While for the horizon 2030 it seems now consensual that the (renewable) hydrogen production will be nearly all consumed domestically, for 2035 and beyond there is an ambition to export significant amounts of hydrogen and other RFNBO. For the production of these fuels, many smaller scale projects now being developed that rely on electricity supply for electrolysis from the national electrical grid. However, this is inadequate for large scale projects, and anyway unsustainable from a long-term perspective.

Such type of issues were addressed in the recent update of the 'carbon-neutrality in the energy sector by 2050' scenario (CN50), developed by the Directorate-General of Energy and Geology, with basis on an in-house integrated model of the Portuguese Energy System (JANUS). It was found that the most desirable renewable power supply mix of technologies would be based on hydro and offshore wind, essentially because of stability of supply throughout the day. However, in practice such a mix would be unfeasible from multiple viewpoints, including limited hydro resource availability, high offshore wind power costs, and in general, risk of endangering security of electricity supply to the Economy via the national grid. More realistic power supply mixes for electrolysis were obtained that rely mostly on PV, but with components of onshore and offshore wind to carry on producing hydrogen during nighttime. In addition, it was studied how the installed capacity and the proportions of each technological component can be optimised using potentially curtailed energy from national electricity grid and profiting from existing reverse hydro and forthcoming battery storage capacities. Expected capacities of dedicated wind and solar power for 2035 and beyond were obtained and related to the strategic domestic and exported hydrogen goals set in national plans.