The rapidly expanding market for green hydrogen and its derivatives faces significant uncertainties that challenge its potential trajectory. Recent research indicates that the European Union's REPowerEU initiative targets to import 6 Mt of hydrogen by pipeline and 4 Mt of ammonia by 2030, might be overly optimistic. In this context, Morocco emerges as an important player due to its proximity to Europe, robust renewable energy potential and supportive policy strategies. In this paper we assess the impact of three sub-sectoral demand scenarios for 2035 and 2050 describing different value chain shifts and strategic drivers utilizing a sector-coupled energy model.

Given the importance of renewable potential for the results, the robustness of all scenarios is furthermore tested against ten historical weather years. Our findings reveal that the optimal capacity expansions of wind, solar and electrolyzers for the Moroccan energy system vary significantly among the different demand scenarios and that they are sensitive to weather conditions and interest rates. Strategies for long-term investment decisions depend highly on derisking financial instruments to guarantee off-takers a resilient landscape.

We contextualize the required expansion pathways for green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and green steel in alignment with Morocco's export strategy, highlighting the competitiveness of these products based on marginal production costs. Additionally, we discuss the co-benefits of climate change mitigation alongside various export scenarios. These scenario-based findings can inform policymakers about the energy system pathways of Morocco and its prospective role in developing the hydrogen market within the MENA region. It is projected that Morocco could contribute up to 20% of the global hydrogen market by the year 2050.