1 Abstract

The accelerated electrification of industrial processes is raising demand for stationary battery storage whose raw‑material needs, life‑cycle impacts and cost trajectories differ markedly between technologies. While lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP) systems currently dominate, sodium‑ion batteries (SIB) are emerging as a promising alternative in the past years, particularly in Europe, thanks to their broader raw‑material base and potential cost advantages [1,2]. This study shows an agent‑based model (ABM) to quantify how techno economic; social and policy drivers shape the relative attractiveness of both technologies. A global sensitivity analysis pinpoints the factors that most strongly steer adoption, providing guidance for industrial decarbonisation strategies.

2 Methodology

The ABM compares LFP and SIB through distinct cost‑ and performance learning curves, raw‑material price trends and recycling assumptions. In the ABM two thousand heterogeneous industrial firms (Agents) are investigated in Terms of their investment decision making behaviour based on the factors capital costs, risk preferences and how the individual agents are influenced by other agents and broader social environment. Key inputs, including CAPEX/OPEX ranges, supply‑chain risk indices, CO₂‑price signals and subsidy levels, are varied simultaneously. A variance‑based sensitivity analysis identifies the parameters and interactions that drive changes in adoption share, net present value and payback time.

3 Expected Results & Outlook

Policy signals, supply‑chain considerations and social diffusion are expected to influence technology choice more strongly than cost learning alone. Rather than delivering point forecasts, the model offers a transparent open-source framework for exploring leverage points, economic, regulatory and social, that could foster a diversified and more resilient battery portfolio on the path to industrial decarbonisation in Europe.

References

[1] Bielewski, M., Pfrang, A., Quintero Pulido, D., Bobba, S., Georgakaki, A., Letout, S., Kuokkanen, A., Mountraki, A., Ince, E., & Shtjefni, D. (2023). Battery technology in the European Union — 2023 status report on technology development, trends, value chains & markets (EUR 31698 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/52259

[2] Yao, A., Benson, S. M., & Chueh, W. C. (2025). Critically assessing sodium-ion technology roadmaps and scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries. Nature Energy, 10, 404–416. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01701-9