Submission 71
Optimal management of offshore wind farms and battery storage with ensemble forecasts
WISO25-71
Presented by: Tobias Fischer
The integration of renewable energy sources, especially offshore wind farms, poses a challenge to the stability of the electricity
grid. As the proportion of wind power grows, the variability and uncertainty of wind power generation leads to frequent grid
overloads, which require curtailment and result in significant energy losses. In addition, the increase in renewable generation
leads to higher intra-day and day-ahead market volatility. Both challenges can be addressed with storage, which allows for
economically optimized portfolio management and has the potential to alleviate congestion by acting as a buffer. However,
current control strategies often neglect the inherent uncertainties in both wind power forecasts and grid load dynamics.
This study tackles the critical issue of how to effectively manage co-located battery storage systems in wind park-grid setups
under uncertain conditions to reduce energy losses caused by frequent grid overloads. We explore the potential of incorporating
probabilistic forecasts into battery management strategies, which may improve the mitigation of overload-induced energy losses
compared to conventional deterministic methods. In addition, our studies analyze current market effectiveness, concerning energy
losses, and how regulations need to be adapted under changing revenue scenarios.
Tested on real world wind park data, we show that while even a simple rule-based strategy can significantly enhance the
effective energy generation due to buffering in the battery storage system, only an optimization strategy can truly trigger the
economic potential. Above that we demonstrate that an advanced stochastic optimization strategy, based on probabilistic day-
ahead wind energy forecasts, can significantly reduce price risks with respect to intraday marketing compared to a simpler
approach based on a deterministic day-ahead wind energy forecast alone. In a setup with a 1 EUR/MWh risk charge on intraday
prices relative to day-ahead prices, for instance, switching from deterministic to probabilistic forecasts improves overall market
gain by 0.1%. The advantage grows to up to 5% at a 100 EUR/MWh risk charge, assuming a battery sized at 33% of the wind
farm’s nominal power.
These findings indicate that accounting for forecast uncertainty not only enables more efficient use of wind energy, challenging
the prevailing reliance on deterministic models in battery dispatch, but also allows market participants to achieve greater financial
benefits through probabilistic forecasting in the future development of energy systems. This has important implications for the
design of future renewable energy systems and regulatory adaption, where flexible storage operation will be critical to manage
growing shares of variable generation. By providing a robust simulation model validated with real-world data, this work con-
tributes to the advancement of predictive control in energy systems, supporting the broader goal of increasing renewable energy
integration while maintaining grid reliability.