Estimation of monthly business turnover using administrative data in the UK
This paper derives monthly estimates of turnover for small and medium size businesses in the UK from rolling quarterly VAT-based turnover data. We develop a state space approach for filtering, cleaning and temporally disaggregating the VAT figures, which are noisy and exhibit dynamic unobserved components. We notably derive multivariate and nonlinear methods to make use of indicator series and data in logarithms respectively. After illustrating our temporal disaggregation method and estimation strategy using an example industry, we estimate monthly seasonally adjusted figures for the seventy-five industries for which the data are available. We thus produce an aggregate series representing approximately 60\% of gross value added in the economy. We compare our estimates with those derived from the Monthly Business Survey and find that the VAT-based estimates show a different time profile and are smoother.
Reference:
STS06-003
Session:
Temporal Disaggregation for higher frequencies data
Presenter/s:
Paul Labonne
Presentation type:
Oral presentation
Room:
MANS
Chair:
Dario Buono, Eurostat, European Commission, Luxembourg, (Email)
Date:
Wednesday, 13 March
Time:
14:30 - 15:30
Session times:
14:30 - 15:30