16:00 - 17:30
Location: 224 - Floor 1
Chair/s:
Ascensión Andina-Díaz
Nissen Gleuwitz - An experimental test of the behavioral effects of climate protection policies
Dmitri Bershadskyy - Manipulation and Security of Communication in a Trust Game
Ascensión Andina-Díaz - An experiment on reputation: competition and dissent
Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez - Large Language Models can Predict Human Strategic Decisions
Eyal Gamliel - The Role of Attention in Framing: How Question Valence Attenuates Attribute Framing Bias
Submission 184
Large Language Models Can Predict Human Strategic Decisions
panel.3-224 - Floor 1-04
Presented by: Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez
Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez 1, Siting (Estee) Lu 2, Helena Normann 3
1 Heidelberg University
2 Edinburgh University
3 Paris School of Economics
We study whether large language models (LLMs) can predict human strategic behavior from pre-play communication. Using three canonical laboratory games that vary in incentive alignment and communication structure, we provide LLMs and incentivized human forecasters with identical transcripts and ask them to predict players' subsequent actions. Using GPT-5 as our main model, we find that it consistently outperforms humans and achieves accuracy well above chance, especially when incentives are aligned and communication is bilateral. The performance gap arises almost entirely from correctly forecasting cooperative actions, while both humans and GPT--5 struggle to anticipate defection. These results suggest that strategic communication contains systematic information about future behavior that humans underutilize and that LLMs are able to exploit more effectively.