15:00 - 16:30
Location: G05
Chair/s:
Irene Mussio
Submission 123
Growing Potatos During Uncertain Times
PS5-G05-04
Presented by: Lina Restrepo-Plaza
Lina Restrepo-Plaza
Universidad Europea de Valencia
Latin America is considered and projected to be the region of the world with the mostintense impacts of climate change in the form of heat waves, low crop yields, forest fires,and other effects on agricultural activities (United Nations, 2021). The International FoodPolicy Research Institute states that climate change has impacts ranging from crop yields toproduction and price consequences, to impacts on consumption and food security (Nelson,et. al. 2009).Wefollowed a between-subjects design to run a comic-vignette-experiment with potatoproducers in Southeast Colombia to identify the extent to which climate uncertaintymediates their production sensitivity to upward and downward price changes. Ours is a 2x2factorial design that modifies both the climate uncertainty (low vs. high) and the directionof the price change (up vs. down).Rain is essential for potato cultivation in Colombia. We crafted two levels of climateuncertainty by presenting a situation in which an average producer is making sowingdecisions. In the low uncertainty condition, the producer faces a range between 25 and 35dry days (10 days), whereas in the high uncertainty condition, they will range from 15 to 45(20 days). Simultaneously, we presented the farmer with four possible prices. In the upward(downward) condition, prices started with no change and gradually increased (decreased)until reaching a 50% increment (reduction).Our findings reveal that high climate uncertainty leads tostatistically significant reductionsin sowing, amounting to approximately 52% compared to scenarios with low uncertainty inclimate conditions. Additionally, our analysis indicates that the price-supply elasticity underthe price reduction treatment is,on average, 1.72 times greater than under the priceincrease condition. Furthermore, this effect appears to be more pronounced in scenarioscharacterized by high climate uncertainty.Our paper sheds light on the potential impact of climate change on agricultural decision-making, offering early insights into the opportunities for public policy interventions. Sincepotatoes hold an important share in the Colombian family bundle, these interventions arenot only aimed at stabilizing food provision and national price levels but also enhancing thewell-being of farmers.