13:30 - 15:00
Room: Floor 2, Room 217, Nature House
Chair/s:
Elena Shvartsman
Elena Shvartsman - The Impact of Stress on Risk Taking
Morten Lau - Structural Estimation of Higher Order Risk Attitudes
Paolo Crosetto - External Validity of Risk Elicitation: assessing the role of measurement error and risk perception
Andre Hofmeyr - Estimating Higher Order Risk Preferences with a Flexible Utility Function: The Bézier Curve
Estimating Higher Order Risk Preferences with a Flexible Utility Function: The Bézier Curve
30
Presented by: Andre Hofmeyr
Andre Hofmeyr 1, 2, Brian Albert Monroe 2
1 University of Cape Town
2 Research Unit in Behavioural Economics and Neuroeconomics
Risk aversion is traditionally defined as aversion to variance, but theoretical and empirical work suggest that higher moments of probability distributions, specifically skewness and kurtosis, also affect choice under risk. Unlike aversion to variance, where structural estimation of the utility function is common, higher order risk preferences are rarely estimated through structural models, primarily due to the lack of flexible and continuous higher order derivatives of common parametric functions. We propose a utility function derived from the Bézier curve, which is continuously differentiable for all derivatives, and allows us to structurally estimate risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. We demonstrate the value of estimating the intensity, not purely the sign, of higher order risk preferences using Bayesian econometric methods and experimental data that varies the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis of lotteries presented to subjects.