HYB25-4
Residual Load Dynamics in Electrified Neighbourhoods:
The Role of Heat Pumps, BEVs, Rooftop PV, and Regulatory Load Control
03 HYB26-4
Presented by: Robert Otto
The increasing electrification of heating and mobility is fundamentally reshaping load patterns in electricity distribution net-
works. The integration of heat pumps, rooftop PV, and BEVs introduces challenges due to temporally concentrated load and
feed-in peaks. This paper presents an integrated modelling approach to generate building-resolved load profiles at district level,
considering technology diffusion up to 2045. Based on building simulations, mobility data, and thermodynamic modelling,
hourly residual load profiles are derived for multiple scenarios, including uncontrolled operation and grid-oriented control via
regulatory load limitation of controllable consumers (according to §14a EnWG). Results show that peak loads increase by a
factor of 2.4 between 2030 and 2045 under uncontrolled conditions, while the average residual load increases only moderately
in comparison. Critical situations mainly result from the temporal coincidence of heat pump operation and BEV charging. Reg-
ulatory load limitation reduces peak loads by only 3–11 % and overload hours by 13–23 %, leaving substantial grid constraints,
especially in highly electrified scenarios. At the same time, PV feed-in peaks become increasingly relevant. The findings indicate
that regulatory measures alone are insufficient to ensure long-term grid stability and underline the need for integrated assessment
approaches.