Renewable powered microgrids: what future for their thermal power plants?
02 HYB24-15
Presented by: Matthieu Chiodetti, Clément Huet
Most of microgrids are still powered by fossil fuels thermal plant today, but an increasing share of renewable generation is planned in these territories to meet our objectives our greenhouses gases emissions reduction. For the grid operator, the question of keeping or downsizing the thermal plant may arise but it needs to ensure that it will keep the same security of power supply. In this paper, a methodology that estimates the probability of power failures in a microgrid is used. This method is based on a Monte-Carlo simulation of the dispatch of the microgrid with uncertain inputs such as the failure rate of generation and storage assets. It is applied to an example of microgrid and shows that even with a high share of renewable, an important thermal power is still needed to cover events when the energy storage is empty and keep the number of power failures tolerable. A probabilistic approach to quantify the risk of power failure is proposed.