One of the main consequences of the current, anthropogenic-driven global warming is the shift of geographical ranges of natural populations, which are moving to areas where their climatic requirements are now met. The aim of this study was to predict the future distribution of three Italian anuran species with different ecological and biological characteristics, the Italian stream frog, Rana italica, the common toad, Bufo bufo and the Italian green toad, Bufotes balearicus. We first quantified the thermal performance curves of each species through laboratory trials. We then combined such performance curve with species distribution models, to assess how both the species’ physiology and the environment affect their current and future climate vulnerability. Our results show that the Italian stream frog will be more severely affected than the common and the Italian green toads, due to the combined effects of its narrow thermal range and its specific habitat requirements. Under the highest temperature scenarios, the predicted habitat loss for R. italica suggests a high probability of local extinction across its geographical range. Our research framework, based on the development of hybrid models that link physiology and ecology, showed to enhance the predictive power of our analyses and advocates for the importance of incorporating specie-specific physiological parameters into distribution models designed to inform conservation policies.