Submission 390
Subdued Rallying, Heightened Accountability: Government Support in a Constrained Election
Panel.8-S-3
Presented by: Vera Yuen
How governments handle crises like the COVID-19 pandemic can reshape electoral attitudes. Two familiar dynamics are at play: a rally-around-the-flag surge in support for incumbents during emergencies, and retrospective voting, in which citizens reward or punish leaders based on perceived performance. This study argues that in authoritarian settings—where opposition forces are weak or marginalized—the rally effect is muted, while performance-based judgments become more salient. Drawing on the 2021 Hong Kong Legislative Council election held amid the pandemic, the analysis shows that perceived success of lockdown policies, rather than infection rates or the simple fact of imposing restrictions, was associated with greater support for the government. These results point to a dampened rally effect alongside a strengthened role for performance evaluations. A complementary survey experiment indicates that beliefs about policy effectiveness raise political trust. Even under curtailed civil liberties, retrospective assessments remain influential, extending beyond economic outcomes and outside fully democratic contexts.