13:30 - 15:10
Room: Meeting Room 2.2
Chair/s:
Connor Dye
Selin Kepenek - Negotiating Belonging: Claims to Political Rights and Transnational Participation Among Turkish Migrants in Berlin and Toronto
Snehashree Mukherjee - Exposure to AI-Driven Indirect Terrorism and Support for Cyber Governance
Connor Dye, Kevin Galambos - Constrained Campaigns: How Alliances Reduce Party Attention to Defense Issues
Perry Carter - An Impassable Road to Glory: Social Exposure to Displacement and Support for Political Violence
Submission 415
An Impassable Road to Glory: Social Exposure to Displacement and Support for Political Violence
Panel.8-S-4
Presented by: Perry Carter
Perry Carter
New York University Abu Dhabi
Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey
This study considers the impact of individual attitudes to both historical and recent territorial losses on political behavior. It explores the connection between individual attitudes towards lost territories and their influence on incumbent support and participation in anti-government protests. Using data from an original survey conducted in Armenia, the paper estimates the causal impact of individual concern over lost territory, using a double machine learning approach that leverages exogenous variation induced by exposure to displaced persons and the visibility of Mount Ararat. The analysis shows that those valuing lost territory more are prone to withdrawing government support, emphasizing candidate traits related to symbolic compliance, and engaging in risky protests. This effect is mediated by emotional distress related to territorial losses. Notably, social network position, rather than media consumption or political partisanship, drives these effects, highlighting a potent grassroots check on political elites in nascent democracies. These findings extend the existing understanding of irredentism, uncovering the role of public attitudes in contexts beyond interstate conflicts. They also deepen insights into the legacies of political violence, revealing how present contexts shape interpretation of historical collective trauma. Lastly, the study enriches knowledge about nationalism and populism in emerging democracies, spotlighting how divergent narrative beliefs about the nation can impact behavior even in a context of universally high nationalism.