Submission 409
Bombing to Lose: Exposure to Airstrikes and Ukrainian Attitudes Towards Territorial Concessions. A Natural Experiment
Panel.7-S-4
Presented by: Artem Kyzym
Since early 2025, calls for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia have gained renewed international traction, particularly following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections. At the same time, recent surveys suggest a modest shift in Ukrainian public opinion towards greater willingness to accept territorial concessions, which coincides with an escalation in Russia’s campaign of airstrikes on civilian infrastructure, including the widespread use of ballistic missiles and Iranian-made Shahed drones against civilian targets. Yet, a systematic examination of the effectiveness of Russia’s strategy of civilian victimization has been absent in scholarship on the war. To test for this effect, I combine fourteen rounds of nationally representative survey data on wartime attitudes with geo-referenced locations of reported Russian airstrikes on civilian infrastructure. Leveraging a natural experiment that compares respondents exposed to an airstrike before versus after their interview date, I find a tentative negative effect of civilian victimization on support for territorial concessions.