11:20 - 13:00
Room: Meeting Room 2.1
Chair/s:
Mary Stegmaier
Burcu Kolcak - Multi-Racial Democracy Under Pressure: Evidence from a Three-Wave Panel before and after the 2024 U.S. Election
Arjun Vishwanath - Accountability for Crime in US Elections
André Schmale - Measuring ideological orientations, communication styles and issue dynamics in German state elections 2026
Mary Stegmaier - The Iron Law of Congressional Midterm Loss: The 2026 Challenge
Nathan McCoslin - Wartime Elections and Crisis Bargaining
Submission 303
Wartime Elections and Crisis Bargaining
Panel.6-S-3
Presented by: Nathan McCoslin
Nathan McCoslin
Texas A&M University
Do wartime executive elections influence the likelihood that conflicts end? Using a crisis-bargaining framework, I develop a model to show how bargaining conducted during an election window differs from bargaining that occurs outside of one. The model shows that elections can either facilitate or hinder conflict termination depending on the relative hawkishness of the candidates in the upcoming election because the potential of leader turnover influences the perceived cost of continuing to fight past an election. To test the implications of my theory, I leverage the exogenous timing of fixed-interval executive elections, such as those in the United States, and conduct a Cox proportional hazards analysis of interstate conflicts.