In US congressional elections, the president’s party usually experiences a net loss of seats midterm. This generalization holds so often it has taken on the mantle of an “iron law” (Tien and Lewis-Beck, 2023, 626). Will it hold for the 2026 midterms? To provide an answer, we have employed the technique of citizen forecasting (CF), asking respondents if they expect the incumbent to lose majority control (Verasight, April, 2025). Responses indicate this “iron law” could fail, with the Republicans keeping control of a least one chamber (Leiter, Stegmaier, Lewis-Beck 2025). How accurate are these forecasts? Are they too far away? To explore that issue, we have replicated the survey with Verasight, in a national sample drawn in Fall 2025 (instead of Spring). For our presentation, we explore these results. We also plan to reinforce them with data from the November 2025 CES survey and an April 2026 Verasight survey. These cumulated results should allow a clear assessment of voter expectations regarding this venerated “iron law.”