16:00 - 17:40
Room: Club B
Chair/s:
Caique Melo
Hyunwoo Kim - Inflation Crises and Political Parties’ Convergence on Macroeconomic Conservatism
Caique Melo - Why Don't You Get a Job? Evidence from Campaign Spending Limits
Isaac Shih-hao Huang - Electoral Incentives and the MPs’ Preferences for Economic and Industrial Policies in an Authoritarian Developmental State: Experience from Taiwan
Dmitrii Semichev, Ruslan Guseinov - Economic equality dividend of popular and elite-driven democratic transitions
Justin Wikkerink - Hinge Moments in International Political Economy: From NAFTA to the 2025 Tariff Crisis
Submission 351
Economic Equality Dividend of Popular and Elite-Driven Democratic Transitions
Panel.4-S-4
Presented by: Dmitrii Semichev, Ruslan Guseinov
Dmitrii Semichev 1Ruslan Guseinov 2, Vadim Ustyuzhanin 3
1 University of Konstanz, Germany
2 University of Mannheim, Germany
3 National Research University "Higher School of Economics", Russia
While classic works see democratization as rooted in distributive conflict, empirical findings remain mixed: inequality is not a prerequisite for democratization and its post-transition dynamics vary across authoritarian backgrounds. Nonviolent revolutions in turn tend to occur in societies with high but not extreme inequality. Their economic consequences, however, are less studied than those of violent revolutions. Only Beissinger shows civic revolutions to be less effective at reducing inequality than social revolutions, yet without comparing them to other mechanisms of democratization.

Using Dorsch and Maarek’s framework, in which unequal autocracies become more equal after democratization and vice versa, we hypothesize that nonviolent revolutionary democratization amplifies inequality-reducing effects by replacing entrenched elites and enabling long-term redistributive reforms. For more equal authoritarian regimes, we expect a stronger post-transition rise in inequality aligned with instability of newborn democratizing regimes. Drawing on the World Inequality Database, NAVCO and ERT datasets, we employ event analysis with staggered adoption.

Democratization and successful nonviolent revolutions separately have similar average effects, but revolutionary democratization reduces inequality about twice as much as any other democratization in highly unequal societies, especially for wealth inequality. Compared to electoral and elite-driven transitions — which show no stable significant effect — revolutionary pathways also reduce inequality in societies even with median pre-transition levels, while results are ambiguous for previously equal states. Panel matching confirms these patterns. We conclude that revolutionary movements impose equality-oriented reforms throughout democratization due to relying on diverse societal groups that are usually a part of successful revolution.