Submission 482
Bilingual Ballots and Political Choice: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
Panel.3-S-4
Presented by: David Hendry
Over the past several decades, state governments across the United States have instituted an increasing reliance on ballot referenda—i.e., direct voting by eligible voters on descriptions of policy proposals. Because the United States has simultaneously experienced a demographic shift toward larger numbers of language minorities, there is growing concern that bilingual individuals who are non-native speakers of English encounter ballot propositions that are difficult to comprehend. The language minority provisions of the Voting Rights Act were enacted in 1975 to mitigate language barriers to voting. These provisions stipulate that when a certain amount or proportion of the population in a political subdivision belongs to a language minority group, election ballots, including descriptions of policy proposals decided by referenda, are required to be provided in the native languages of the relevant groups. However, there has been virtually no work testing the effects of these language minority provisions on voting decisions on ballot referenda. This paper employs a regression discontinuity approach to examine the hypothesis that lack of access to ballot referenda in native languages leads to differences in decision-making. Specifically, the paper exploits the population thresholds that trigger a legal requirement to print ballots in additional languages as an exogenous discontinuity in the relationship between language minority status and decisions on policy referenda, including both the decision to vote vs. abstain, and, conditional on having voted, to support or not. The paper further explores the policy impact of demographic projections and potential changes in the thresholds that trigger legal requirements.