Submission 100
Campaigning Through Governing Speech: How Electoral Incentives Shape Presidential Rhetoric in Ghana
Panel.3-S-2
Presented by: Francis Adjei
Presidential speeches are central tools of strategic communication, yet we know little about how electoral incentives shape rhetoric in institutionalized governing addresses. This study examines the extent to which incumbents campaign through constitutionally mandated State of the Nation Addresses (SONAs), a highly structured format directed at Parliament, the media, and citizens. Using a newly constructed sentence-level dataset of 26 SONAs in Ghana’s Fourth Republic (2001–2025; 9,163 sentences across 25 policy sectors), I combine rule-based content coding with logistic regression, fixed-effects OLS models, and sentiment analysis to identify promises, classify their policy domains, and measure affective tone. Comparing reelection-seeking years and election years when presidents are term-limited, I find strong evidence of strategic adaptation: incumbents make significantly more promises, shift attention toward visible service-delivery sectors such as employment, infrastructure, and social protection, and use more optimistic emotional tones when seeking reelection, while non-reelection-seeking presidents issue fewer and more muted promises. These results show how electoral incentives shape executive communication even within highly constrained speech formats, advancing research on strategic rhetoric, anticipatory responsiveness, and political communication in competitive but institutionally weak democracies.