09:20 - 11:00
Room: Club B
Chair/s:
Julia Ebner
Discussant - Yu Mei

Marco Bocchese - Guns and Governance: Legal and Political Dimensions of Arms Trafficking in Central Africa
Enze Han, Haozhe Zhang - The Making of Us: The “Global South” and China’s Pursuit of Global Leadership
Julia Ebner, Harvey Whitehouse - When Despots Become Deadly: Can the language of authoritarian leaders be used to assess the risk of state-led mass violence?
Haozhe Zhang - Honey Tastes Bitter: When China's Development Projects Overseas Backfire on Its Political Influence
Alex Chienwu Hsueh - European States’ Hedging Behavior amid the Strategic Competition between the United States and China, 2005-2024
Yu Mei - Deterrence Through Reassurance
Submission 183
Deterrence Through Reassurance
Panel.1-S-6
Presented by: Yu Mei
Yu Mei 1, Liqun Liu 2
1 University of Oslo
2 Shanghai Jiao Tong University
We identify two strategic obstacles a defender faces when trying to deter an aggressor. The resolve problem arises when the defender lacks sufficient willingness to retaliate against aggression today, while the commitment problem arises when the defender cannot credibly commit to retaliate in the future. We develop a dynamic model of war to show that, counterintuitively, deterrence is strongest when the resolve problem is absent but the commitment problem is present. A defender who is both resolved and committed cannot stop aggression today if the aggressor is sufficiently dissatisfied with the status quo. A resolved defender can improve deterrence by weakening its commitment to future retaliation. The commitment problem prevents aggression today by reassuring the aggressor that his prospects may improve over time. The theory sheds light on why patrons sometimes publicly distance themselves from protégés, why alliance treaties often embed flexibility and term limits, and why military support alternates between fungible aid transfers and the deployment of immobile assets.