09:20 - 11:00
Room: Club B
Chair/s:
Julia Ebner
Discussant - Yu Mei 

Julia Ebner, Harvey Whitehouse - When Despots Become Deadly: Can the language of authoritarian leaders be used to assess the risk of state-led mass violence?
Haozhe Zhang - Honey Tastes Bitter: When China's Development Projects Overseas Backfire on Its Political Influence
Enze Han, Haozhe Zhang - The Making of Us: The “Global South” and China’s Pursuit of Global Leadership
Alex Chienwu Hsueh - European States’ Hedging Behavior amid the Strategic Competition between the United States and China, 2005-2024
Marco Bocchese - Guns and Governance: Legal and Political Dimensions of Arms Trafficking in Central Africa
Yu Mei - Deterrence through Ambiguity
 
Submission 183
Deterrence Through Ambiguity
Panel.1-S-6
Presented by: Yu Mei
Yu Mei 1, Liqun Liu 2
1 University of Oslo
2 Shanghai Jiao Tong University
This article identifies two strategic problems a defender faces in deterrence. The resolve problem arises when the defender lacks the capacity to retaliate against immediate aggression; the commitment problem arises when the defender cannot credibly commit to retaliate against future aggression. We develop a dynamic model of deterrence showing that, counterintuitively, deterrence is strongest under a combination of strong present resolve and ambiguous future commitment. A defender that is both resolved and fully committed cannot deter when an aggressor is sufficiently determined to revise the status quo. Intertemporal flexibility facilitates deterrence by leaving open the possibility that the aggressor's prospects may improve over time while keeping that possibility limited. The theory thus explains why strong commitment to retaliate may trigger deterrence failure and why preserving ambiguity in future commitment can be strategically beneficial.