Submission 546
The Minority Card: Outgroup Scapegoating as Minority Outreach
Panel.1-S-5
Presented by: Adrian Shin
Research on the political consequences of economic disruption has emphasized voter
backlash against globalization and elite appeals to majoritarian anxieties. Yet we identify a
complementary supply-side strategy in which policymakers blame outgroups—such as
immigrants—specifically to appeal to minority voters rather than to white majorities. We
argue that outgroup-blaming rhetoric can be used to court ideologically or economically
conservative segments of minority constituencies, especially in places experiencing eco-
nomic distress, and that this strategy is most likely when economic shocks erode partisan
loyalty and when elites face competitive pressures that reward symbolic signaling over
policy delivery. We evaluate this argument by analyzing more than three million tweets
from all sitting members of the U.S. Congress between 2013 and 2020, using supervised
machine learning and Large language models (LLMs) to classify messages that blame
immigrants, foreign governments, or international institutions, and examining how their
frequency varies by ideology, party, and district or state demographics. To assess the causal
effect of economic decline, we exploit a Bartik-style instrument that isolates the exogenous
component of manufacturing job losses at the district and state level, disaggregated by
race. The paper contributes to research on elite behavior, economic voting, and race and
representation by demonstrating how economic shocks shape rhetorical strategies and
complicate assumptions about the racial logic of anti-globalization politics.