This study examines how economic slowdowns shape nationalist sentiment across different regime types. It uses data from the World Values Survey and various regional Barometers. The analysis leverages natural experiments at national and subnational levels, and employs multilevel models and difference-in-differences designs to identify the effects of localized downturns on nationalist attitudes. Although the growing number of economic crises has spurred research on their links with nationalism and patriotism, the potential impacts of economic slowdowns and their spillover across subnational contexts remain insufficiently explored.

Findings indicate that slowdowns heighten anti-foreign sentiment—expressed as hostility toward immigrants and external actors—through increased economic insecurity, perceived competition over jobs and welfare, and the diffusion of protectionist discourse. Inward-looking forms of nationalism (e.g., patriotism and national identity) vary by regime type. In non-democratic settings, state-sponsored nationalism often intensifies as elites mobilize unity narratives to deflect discontent, whereas in democracies, economic distress more often fuels populist, bottom-up nationalism rooted in identity politics and anti-elite sentiment, with notable subnational variation. The study illustrate how material shocks interact with identity politics and institutional structures, specifying the mechanisms through which economic downturns generate distinct nationalist responses across regimes.